For the first time in decades, more immigrants are leaving the United States than arriving, according to a Pew Research Center analysis of new census data reported by The New York Times. Between January and June, the foreign-born population fell by nearly 1.5 million, dropping from 53.3 million to 51.9 million.
The Trump administration has framed this decline as a success of its strict immigration policies. President Donald Trump celebrated the shift on Truth Social, calling it “negative net migration for the first time in 50 years.” Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem added that the drop is easing pressure on public services and revitalizing job markets.
The decline follows sweeping enforcement measures, including:
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Tighter asylum restrictions at the southern border
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Stricter visa requirements for students and skilled workers
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Expanded detention capacity
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A self-deportation program offering airfare and financial incentives
Some immigrants, like Lillian Divina Leite, a housekeeper in North Carolina, have left voluntarily through the self-deportation program, citing fear of detention. Advocacy groups report increasing numbers of families preparing to leave before winter.
Experts caution that the trend could have long-term economic and demographic consequences. Pew’s chief demographer, Jeffrey Passel, described negative net migration as a “demographic certainty” so far in 2025. Tara Watson of the Brookings Institution warned that rapid declines in immigration could harm the U.S. economy and reduce the flow of talent in science and technology, with potential generational repercussions.
Historically, the last period of negative migration occurred during the Great Depression, when up to a million Mexicans and Mexican Americans were repatriated, many under coercion. Analysts say the current outflow’s persistence will depend on administration policies and legal challenges.
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