As cold air retreats from most areas except the northern tier and the western mountains, much of the country has a chance to experience unusual warmth around the Christmas holiday, with some people even stepping outside in short sleeves.
While storms batter California and disrupt parts of the Northeast, a large pocket of warm air will build over the south-central United States this week and continue to expand. This setup could lead to one of the warmest Christmas periods on record for some locations, including the days just before and after the holiday.
As the jet stream pushes north across the middle of the country, temperatures will rise sharply. This marks a dramatic shift from just one or two weeks ago, when a weakening polar vortex allowed intense cold air from Canada to surge south.
“Close to two dozen states, from parts of the Rockies to portions of the Appalachians, northward through much of the Plains and part of the Midwest, are forecast to experience temperatures that are 15–30 degrees above the historical average by Christmas Day,” AccuWeather Meteorologist Alyssa Glenny said. “At this level, the warmth will be comparable to late April or early May.”
Christmas Day is expected to produce the most tied or broken temperature records of the week. Cities likely to see record challenges include Kansas City, Missouri; Tulsa, Oklahoma; Wichita, Kansas; Albuquerque, New Mexico; and Amarillo, Texas.
“Oklahoma City will challenge or break record highs over multiple days in a row for the middle and latter part of this week,” Glenny said. “For this city in particular, highs are forecast to be roughly 30 degrees above the historical average, which is in the upper 40s. Highs this week are projected to be in the upper 70s.”
Glenny also noted that several locations across the central and south-central U.S. could see nighttime temperatures so mild that they threaten record high minimums. While record dates differ by location, some stretch back to the mid-1900s or earlier, meaning this could be the warmest Christmas in a lifetime for some residents.
Later in the week, the warmth is expected to spread north and east, pushing extreme temperature departures into the southern and mid-Atlantic regions and parts of the Great Lakes.
Temperatures could approach 60 degrees Fahrenheit in Pittsburgh and Washington, D.C., by Friday, while New York City may see highs well into the 50s. For much of the second half of the week, highs are forecast to reach the low to mid-70s in some areas.
One factor that could limit the warmth is the presence of persistent low clouds and fog stretching from the Gulf Coast through the Ohio Valley, Appalachians, and along the Atlantic coast. Widespread fog could create travel issues for drivers and airlines, potentially causing significant delays.
The same weather pattern drawing warm air north will also pull moisture from the Gulf. In areas where clouds linger, temperatures could end up 10 to 20 degrees cooler than forecast.
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