Old Farmer’s Almanac Predicts When New York Might See Its First Snow

Old Farmer’s Almanac Predicts When New York Might See Its First Snow

It might be spooky season as autumn reaches full swing, but New Yorkers are already thinking ahead to the next big holiday weekend — Thanksgiving.

Many plan trips to visit family and friends, though rough weather can easily disrupt even the best travel plans. Last week, the Almanac released its Thanksgiving 2025 Travel Weather Map and forecast, offering a preview of what to expect for both Thanksgiving and the first signs of winter snowfall.

While the Old Farmer’s Almanac predicts a warmer-than-average fall across the U.S. in 2025, it expects much of New York, the Appalachians, and the Lower Lakes to experience a cooler and drier season than usual.

In past years, the first measurable snowfall in the Northeast has arrived as early as late September in parts of Vermont and Maine. On average, upstate New York sees its first measurable snow during the first week of November, according to the Northeast Regional Climate Center.

When to expect snow in New York

The average date of first measurable snow in key New York communities includes:

  • Binghamton, NY – Nov. 1
  • Syracuse, NY – Nov. 6
  • Buffalo, NY – Nov. 7
  • Rochester, NY – Nov. 8
  • JFK International Airport – Dec. 9
  • LaGuardia International Airport – Dec. 10
  • Central Park in NYC – Dec. 13

This year, Thanksgiving falls on Thursday, Nov. 27, and AAA reports predict that 80 million Americans will travel 50 miles or more for the holiday, with most planning to drive.

What is The Old Farmer’s Almanac Thanksgiving 2025 weather forecast?

Forecasters say Thanksgiving week will bring a patchwork of weather across the U.S., with limited snow in northern areas, sunshine across much of the East, and rain in the West.

The almanac notes that while the forecast can help with holiday travel planning, travelers should check local conditions closer to departure. “They’re perfect for planning, but not a substitute for daily local forecasts,” the almanac said.

In the Northeast, the Almanac predicts colder-than-average weather, forecasters said.

Northern New England may experience snow, while the southern half of the region will likely enjoy a crisp, sunny holiday. The Atlantic corridor will begin the week with mild temperatures that will turn chilly by Thanksgiving, with sunny and dry conditions expected.

What’s the 2025-26 Old Farmer’s Almanac winter weather forecast?

Nationwide, the Almanac’s 2025–26 Winter Weather Forecast predicts a winter that will be mostly mild — with pockets of wild, featuring near-normal to mild temperatures across much of the U.S. However, some areas should prepare for colder-than-usual conditions.

In New York, the season’s severity will vary by region. Central New York and the Southern Tier are expected to see a colder-than-normal winter, while western New York, the Capital Region, Adirondacks, Hudson Valley, and New York City/Long Island are forecasted to experience slightly milder-than-usual temperatures.

How much snow will New York get in 2025–26?

In short, it depends on where you live in New York.

Western New York is expected to have a mild winter with below-average precipitation and a near-normal amount of snow, according to the Old Farmer’s Almanac. The northeastern part of the state anticipates normal but lighter-than-average snowfall, while the Southern Tier is predicted to experience a colder-than-usual winter with below-normal snowfall. New York City and Long Island are forecasted to have milder, drier weather with below-normal snowfall.

Average snowfall totals in New York can vary widely, from 25–31 inches in the New York City area to 95–127 inches in western and central New York, according to the National Weather Service.

Last year’s totals for 2024–25 were Syracuse: 115.4 inches, Rochester: 88.6 inches, Buffalo: 77.3 inches, and New York City’s Central Park: 12.9 inches, per the Weather Service.

When is winter solstice 2025?

The shortest day of the year is the first day of winter or winter solstice, which in 2025 is Sunday, Dec. 21.

How accurate is the Old Farmer’s Almanac?

According to its website, The Old Farmer’s Almanac bases its long-range forecasts on a mix of solar science (sunspot activity), climatology (prevailing weather patterns), and meteorology (atmospheric study). The Almanac claims an 80% accuracy rate.

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