Fresno, Calif. — Forecasters are growing more confident that a strong winter storm will bring heavy snowfall to the Sierra Nevada just ahead of Christmas. The National Weather Service says there is a 60% chance that at least 2 feet of snow will accumulate above 7,000 feet by Thursday.
The Hanford Weather Service office reports that the greatest potential for major snow impacts is expected from early Monday, Dec. 23, through Christmas Day on Thursday, Dec. 25. While confidence remains high that significant snowfall will hit the high Sierra, uncertainty persists about when snow will begin and when the heaviest snowfall rates will occur during the 48-hour window.
Probabilities for two feet of snow exceed 70% near Tioga Pass, Mammoth Mountain, and parts of Yosemite National Park. Chances are closer to 60–70% along the Sierra crest near Sequoia and Kings Canyon national parks. Lower elevations, including the Central Valley, are not expected to receive snow.
Forecasters describe a range of possible scenarios. In the best-case outcome, estimated at a 20% chance, warmer storm temperatures would push snow levels higher and reduce overall accumulation. In the worst-case scenario, also carrying about a 20% probability, colder air could lower snow levels to around 5,000 feet. This could bring impactful snowfall farther south into Kern County and affect mountain passes such as Tejon and Tehachapi.
If the colder scenario unfolds, travel disruptions could become widespread across major Sierra routes, including Highways 120, 168, and 180, with chain requirements and temporary road closures possible.
Officials are urging travelers heading into the mountains for the Christmas holiday to closely track forecasts, prepare winter emergency kits, and be ready for rapidly changing conditions. Additional updates are expected as forecasters gain more confidence in the storm’s timing and intensity.
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